How the FIRE number is worked out
Take your monthly spending, multiply by twelve and divide by the withdrawal rate. At a 4% rate that is twenty-five years of spending; at 3.5% about twenty-nine; at 3% about thirty-three.
monthly spending × 12 ÷ withdrawal rate
The 4% rule, and why a lower rate is safer
The 4% rule comes from studies of how much a mixed investment could pay out each year, adjusted for inflation, without running out over thirty years. Retiring earlier means a longer stretch, which is why many people plan on 3% or 3.5%.
Questions
- What does FIRE stand for?
- Financial independence, retire early: saving and investing until what your money earns can cover your everyday life, so that work becomes a choice.
- Is the FIRE number advice?
- No. It is a rule of thumb applied to your own spending, and illustrative. Taxes, fees and the order in which good and bad years arrive all change what is safe.
- Can I track my progress towards it?
- Yes. Make it a summit and save the route with a free account; each month you record your figures, Uphill shows how far along you are and when you arrive at your real pace.